September 2026 Global Ocean Freight Market Outlook
Market update based on available data as of August 20–24, 2026.
1. Global Ocean Freight Rates Will Not Decline Uniformly
As of August 20, Drewry’s World Container Index had increased for the third consecutive week, rising 4% week over week to USD 4,526 per 40ft container.
The increase was primarily driven by stronger Transpacific rates, while spot rates from China to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean continued to correct.
According to current market conditions, ocean freight rates are unlikely to move in the same direction across every trade lane in September 2026.
| Ruta comercial | September 2026 Outlook | Main Factors |
|---|---|---|
| China–U.S. West Coast | Elevated and volatile | Peak-season demand, blank sailings and capacity management |
| China–U.S. East Coast | Firm to slightly higher | Capacity reductions and Panama Canal surcharges |
| China–Northern Europe | Stable to moderately softer | Early peak season and improving space availability |
| China–Mediterranean | Softer or range-bound | Lower demand and carrier competition for cargo |
| Transatlantic | Relatively stable | More balanced changes in supply and demand |
| Intra-Asia | Localized increases | Transshipment congestion and feeder capacity constraints |
The overall September market is therefore unlikely to be characterized by a broad reduction in freight rates.
The main September trend will be firmer Transpacific rates, softer Asia–Europe pricing and continued carrier capacity management.
2. China to USA: Freight Rates Remain Well Supported
Current Market Data
As of August 20:
- Shanghai to Los Angeles: approximately USD 6,802 per 40ft container, up 9% week over week
- Shanghai to New York: approximately USD 9,507 per 40ft container, up 9% week over week
- Asia–U.S. East Coast capacity declined approximately 9% from July
- Asia–U.S. West Coast capacity declined approximately 0.4% month over month
- Several carriers announced Panama Canal-related surcharges for Asia–U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast services effective in September
These figures are based on Drewry’s August 20 market assessment.
September Outlook
China–U.S. West Coast freight rates are expected to remain elevated and volatile in September.
Although front-loading absorbed part of the traditional peak-season volume earlier in the year, U.S. import demand has not disappeared as quickly as previously expected.
Freightos reported that the U.S. retail import forecast had shifted from a sharp July peak followed by a significant decline in August and September to a more even period of elevated demand extending through September.
This suggests that some U.S. importers are still replenishing inventory or executing peak-season orders later than expected.
U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast routes could remain firmer than West Coast services for several reasons:
- Panama Canal draft and cargo-weight restrictions
- Reduced Asia–U.S. East Coast capacity
- New Panama Canal-related surcharges in September
- Longer vessel rotations and slower capacity turnover
- Importers diversifying cargo away from U.S. West Coast gateways
BRF Logistics Assessment
BRF Logistics expects U.S.-bound freight rates to remain firm during the first half of September, particularly for services to New York, Savannah and Houston.
Whether rates begin to decline in the second half of the month will depend primarily on U.S. import demand and whether carriers restore additional capacity.
Shipping Recommendations
- Book U.S. West Coast cargo approximately 10–14 days before departure.
- Secure U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast space approximately 14–21 days in advance.
- Confirm Panama Canal surcharges separately from the base ocean freight rate.
- For heavy 40HQ cargo, confirm container weight limits and inland rail or truck restrictions.
- Compare the complete door-to-door logistics cost rather than only the basic ocean freight rate.
3. China to Europe: Rates May Continue to Ease Gradually
Current Market Data
As of August 20:
- Shanghai to Rotterdam: approximately USD 4,401 per 40ft container, down 1% week over week
- Shanghai to Genoa: approximately USD 4,955 per 40ft container, down 2% week over week
- Freightos previously recorded an approximately 15% decline from early-July peaks on China–Northern Europe and China–Mediterranean routes
- Space availability to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean has gradually improved
Freightos reported the following changes on August 11:
- Asia–Northern Europe rates declined 8% week over week
- Asia–Mediterranean rates declined 7%
- Northern Europe averages returned to approximately USD 5,000 per FEU
- Mediterranean averages were approximately USD 6,000 per FEU
Freightos Baltic Index market update
September Outlook
China–Europe ocean freight rates are likely to follow a pattern of gradual softening combined with periods of short-term stability.
Four factors support this forecast.
1. The European Peak Season Started Early
Some Christmas inventory, autumn retail products and general stock-replenishment orders were shipped between May and July.
This front-loading reduced the intensity of the traditional September peak season.
2. Space Availability Is Improving
Cargo rollover backlogs on China–Northern Europe and Mediterranean services are gradually clearing.
On some routes, booking space is now easier to secure than it was in June and July.
3. Carriers Will Continue Using Blank Sailings
Even if cargo demand declines, carriers may cancel sailings, combine services or reduce available allocations to prevent freight rates from falling too quickly.
4. European Port Congestion Has Not Completely Disappeared
During the middle of August, average vessel waiting times at Shanghai and Rotterdam were approximately 32.3 hours and 25 hours, respectively.
Labour disruptions at German ports could also continue to affect vessel schedules and inland operations.
Drewry Asia–Europe market assessment
Northern Europe vs. Mediterranean Routes
Major Northern European gateways include:
- Hamburg
- Rotterdam
- Antwerp
- Le Havre
- Felixstowe
Freight rates to these ports are expected to remain stable to moderately softer. However, port congestion and blank sailings should limit the speed of any decline.
Major Mediterranean gateways include:
- Genoa
- Valencia
- Barcelona
- Fos-sur-Mer
- Piraeus
Demand pressure could be more visible on Mediterranean routes. Carriers may therefore offer more competitive rates for selected ports, vessels or departure dates.
BRF Logistics Assessment
Short-term freight quotations are more suitable for China–Europe shipments in September. Importers should avoid locking in a long quotation period unless the rate and capacity are contractually protected.
For non-urgent cargo, compare:
- Rates for the first week of September
- Mid-September freight rates
- Direct and transshipment services
- Sea freight plus European rail
- Sea freight plus European road delivery
- Port-to-port and complete door-to-door costs
4. Blank Sailings Will Support September Freight Rates
Drewry expects 49 cancelled sailings across the main East–West trade lanes between week 35 and week 39, covering August 24 to September 27.
These cancellations represent approximately 6% of scheduled sailings.
The expected distribution is:
- Eastbound Transpacific: 60%
- Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean: 21%
- Transatlantic: 19%
Although approximately 94% of scheduled sailings are still expected to operate, the concentration of cancellations on the Transpacific could significantly affect space and freight rates during particular weeks.
Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker
Possible consequences for shippers include:
- Original sailing dates being postponed by one week
- Cargo being rolled to the next available vessel
- Peak-season space becoming restricted again
- Higher rates for urgent bookings
- Concentrated cargo arrivals at destination ports
- Increased pressure on terminal and truck appointments
Importers should therefore evaluate both the freight rate and the reliability of the corresponding vessel space.
A low quotation has limited value if the carrier cannot provide a confirmed allocation.
5. Red Sea, Suez Canal and Middle East Risks Remain Major Uncertainties
Some container shipping lines have cautiously resumed selected Red Sea and Suez Canal services, but the network has not returned to normal.
Maersk indicated in August that approximately one-third of its normal traffic in the affected network was once again moving through the Suez Canal or Red Sea.
This covered four of the carrier’s 13 relevant services.
The company is following a gradual approach to avoid creating further port congestion and schedule disruption as vessel routes change.
This creates two possible scenarios for September.
Scenario 1: More Vessels Return to the Suez Canal
If carriers restore additional Suez services, effective capacity between Asia and Europe could increase.
This would reduce voyage distances, accelerate vessel circulation and place further downward pressure on freight rates.
Scenario 2: Security Conditions Deteriorate
If the regional security situation worsens, carriers may continue or expand Cape of Good Hope diversions.
Longer voyages would continue absorbing vessel capacity and could push freight rates, insurance costs and fuel surcharges higher.
As a result, quotations for China–Europe, China–Middle East and Mediterranean services may continue to have short validity periods.
6. Port Congestion Could Offset Lower Cargo Demand
Even if cargo volumes weaken on certain routes, port and inland infrastructure bottlenecks could continue reducing effective shipping capacity.
Maersk reported that vessel waiting times at Shanghai had reached as long as 12 days during some periods.
The carrier also identified infrastructure bottlenecks in Northern Europe, South America, West Africa and China.
According to Maersk, severe port congestion and network bottlenecks—rather than only the Middle East conflict—were major factors supporting higher freight rates.
Shippers should monitor the following issues in September:
- Typhoon disruption at Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen
- Transshipment congestion at Singapore and Port Klang
- Vessel waiting times at Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp
- German port strikes or labour negotiations
- Panama Canal draft and heavy-container restrictions
- Rhine River water levels and their effect on European inland transport
7. September 2026 Market Scenarios
Base-Case Scenario
The most likely September market conditions are:
- The global container index remains elevated and volatile.
- U.S. West Coast rates remain stable or fluctuate moderately.
- U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast rates remain comparatively strong.
- China–Northern Europe rates decline gradually.
- Importers gain more negotiating flexibility on Mediterranean routes.
- Carriers use blank sailings to prevent a rapid decline in rates.
Upside Risk Scenario
Freight rates could increase again if:
- Security conditions deteriorate in the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz.
- Severe typhoons disrupt Shanghai, Ningbo or Shenzhen.
- The Panama Canal introduces additional cargo restrictions.
- European port strikes expand.
- Carriers announce more blank sailings.
- U.S. import demand continues to exceed expectations.
Downside Scenario
A more significant decline could develop in the second half of September if:
- The U.S. peak season ends rapidly.
- European retail and industrial demand continues weakening.
- Carriers restore substantial vessel capacity.
- The return to Suez Canal routes accelerates.
- Port congestion improves materially.
- Cargo demand falls faster than carriers can reduce capacity.
8. Recommendations for Importers and Exporters
De China a EE. UU.
- Do not delay critical cargo solely in anticipation of lower late-September rates.
- Confirm Panama Canal-related surcharges for U.S. East Coast services.
- Compare Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, New York, Savannah and Houston routing options.
- Compare port-to-port freight with the complete door-to-door cost.
- Confirm destination free time, terminal charges and truck appointment requirements.
- Check rail and truck weight limits for heavy containers.
De China a Europa
- Compare freight rates week by week throughout September.
- Do not focus only on a reduction in the basic ocean freight rate.
- Review port congestion, terminal charges and European trucking costs.
- Prepare the importer’s EORI, HS/CN classification, commercial invoice and packing information before departure.
- For DDP shipping, confirm the importer, customs-duty arrangement and import VAT structure.
- Compare direct services with transshipment and multimodal alternatives.
Information Required for a Freight Quotation
To receive an accurate ocean freight or door-to-door quotation, provide:
- Origin city and pickup address
- Destination port or final delivery postcode
- Product name and HS code
- Number and type of packages
- Dimensiones de la carga
- Gross weight and total volume
- Required equipment: 20GP, 40GP, 40HQ or LCL
- Fecha de disponibilidad para el envío
- Customs-clearance requirements
- DDU or DDP requirement
- Final delivery location type
- Any special loading, unloading or delivery conditions
Conclusión
The September 2026 ocean freight market is unlikely to experience a uniform global decline.
Transpacific services remain supported by resilient demand, blank sailings and reduced capacity, while China–Europe freight rates are more likely to soften gradually.
However, congestion, canal restrictions, geopolitical risks and carrier capacity management will continue to create sudden changes in both rates and space availability.
For importers and exporters, the best strategy is to evaluate each trade lane separately and compare the complete logistics cost from the supplier’s factory to the final delivery address.
BRF Logistics can coordinate supplier pickup, export customs clearance, FCL or LCL ocean freight, destination customs support, DDU/DDP arrangements and final truck delivery according to the actual shipment requirements.
